Pavel Rejf on Huawei and deglobalization

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The spectre of deglobalization and the European elections

A decade after the first crisis of 21st century capitalism, Europe has passed the nadir of the aftershocks unleashed by the 2008 global downturn. It is time to count blessings: a rerun of the Great Depression has been avoided and growth returned to the besieged continent. Whether the upswing will continue in 2019 is doubtful as dark clouds hover on the horizon. The spectre of deglobalization looming over trade tensions between the United States (US) and China, the uncertain fallout from Brexit, Hungarian, Polish and Romanian backsliding on the rule of law, and the rise of populism across the continent confront the European Union (EU) with an existential crisis.

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Disrupted production location choices

The last three decades have seen an acceleration of the interconnectedness of the global economy on a number of levels: economic, productive, financial, social, and cultural. Some referred to it as a turbocharged globalisation (Friedman, The Lexus and the olive tree: Understanding globalization. New York: Random House, 2000) since, not only had it been multi-faceted, but it had moved faster than any time before. The 2008 financial crisis has somewhat pushed to the fore the undesirable implications of such global linkages, especially in advanced economies where de-industrialisation, joblessness, and imbalances in the national and regional economies were reducing the responsiveness and resilience of economic systems to face external shocks. This led to the emergence of bottom-up resentment that has shaken political establishments in both the United States and Europe; consider the election of Trump in the United States, the emergence of populist parties in Europe and Brexit. A dislike fo…
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ECRI indicator of deglobalization

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De-Globalization Diagnosis Predated Trade War"
ECRI's latest article details the trending de-globalization that has taken over the last couple of years. They describe the trend in conjunction with the global growth decline and explain that when global GDP growth outpaces global trade growth, we have de-globalization. The article details the unequal nature of deglobalization, stating that exports in the Eurozone have trended higher than their Western counterparts.
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