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Showing posts from 2019

Is terrorism, poverty, and refugees the dark side of globalization?

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada, Donghyun Park, Alam Khan, and Muhammad Tahir. present a new model on the impact of terrorism on the deglobalization process. The channels are faster poverty expansion, largest flows of refugees, expansion of trade protectionism, and last but not least, the dramatic expansion of economic desgrowth. This new model is entitled “TheDeglobalization Global Evaluation Model (DGE-Model)”. The objective of the DGE-Model is to offer policy-makers and researchers a new analytical tool to study the impact of terrorism on the deglobalization process of Muslim countries. The applicability of the DGE-Model is not limited to a specific group of Muslim countries or regions, nor is it constrained by the development stage. In short, the DGE-Model is a simple, flexible and versatile tool to study the link between terrorism and deglobalization. They apply their model to three Muslim countries, namely Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan for 1999 to 2018, a period which witnessed acceler…

The costs of austerity: deglobalization

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"Did Austerity Cause Brexit?"
CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP13846 THIEMO FETZER, University of Warwick
Email: t.fetzer@warwick.ac.uk This paper documents a significant association between the exposure of an individual or area to the UK government's austerity-induced welfare reforms begun in 2010, and the following: the subsequent rise in support for the UK Independence Party, an important correlate of Leave support in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union membership; broader individual-level measures of political dissatisfaction; and direct measures of support for Leave. Leveraging data from all UK electoral contests since 2000, along with detailed, individual-level panel data, the findings suggest that the EU referendum could have resulted in a Remain victory had it not been for austerity.

The end of hegemony

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"Funding the Great War and the Beginning of the End for British Hegemony"
CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP13848 MARTIN ELLISON, University of Oxford
THOMAS J. SARGENT, New York University (NYU) - Department of Economics, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Email: thomas.sargent@nyu.edu
ANDREW SCOTT, London Business School - Department of Economics, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
Email: ascott@london.edu Britain was the richest country in the world at the outbreak of the Great War, benefitting from all the resources of an industrialised country and a large empire. Funding the war contributed to the beginning of the end for British hegemony. Financiers in London extracted a high price for lending their money to the government to pay for the supplies and munitions needed to win the war. The US extracted a similarly high price for lending to Britain during the war. Russia never paid its war debts to Britain; France, Italy and Belgium…

Zbyněk Fiala on Deglobalization 2.0

However, the fear of exaggerated globalization is also expressed by serious economic science. There is no unity, but there is a stream that speaks of the recurrence and withdrawal of globalization. One such deglobalization occurred after the Great Depression in the 1930s and the other began after the Great Recession, as Americans call the financial crisis after 2008. Peter van Bergeijk writes about it in Deglobalization 2.0, Trade and Openess . The book has just been published by Elgar Publishing and is also available in electronic form, so I could read at least a summary of the first chapter. ( HERE )

Basically, today's processes of 'deglobalization', ascribed to Trump and Brexit, were much earlier. So we see symptoms, not causes. Like all economic processes, globalization has not only revenues but also costs. In the beginning, revenues grow faster than costs. Greater openness of the economy opens up huge profits that can be partly offered to the population in the form of…

it's the 1910s

It has become fashionable to compare the current rise of populism to the political developments of the 1930s and the aftermath of the Great Depression. In my view, however, investors can learn more from a comparison with the Gilded Age of the late 19thcentury and the years leading up to World War I. 

https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/echoes-of-the-gilded-age-part-1-economics

Us vs. Them: The Failure of Globalism, by Ian Bremmer

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For the past 40 years, globalization has promised to break down international barriers and bring shared prosperity to the developed and developing worlds alike. The so-called end of history held Western-style liberalism triumphant and heralded a new era of international cooperation. Fast forward to 2019 and the consensus seems to be rapidly unwinding. Rising populism in Europe and America, increasing geopolitical tension, and a new love of walls — both literal and figurative — threatens to usher in a new period of ‘deglobalization’. Political scientist (and head of risk consultancy at the Eurasia Group) Ian Bremmer’s latest book tries to answer the question: why is globalism failing?

Why should you read it? As the scale of the global challenges facing us becomes increasingly evident, the much-maligned “Davos Elite” seems to be doubling down on Business as Usual. It is refreshing then to read a sincere critique of the problems created by globalization from an unapologetic globalist. A…

百度翻译|百度词典

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Lessons from the trade blocks and trade wars

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"Trade Blocs and Trade Wars During the Interwar Period"
CESifo Working Paper No. 7665 DAVID S. JACKS, Simon Fraser University (SFU) - Department of Economics, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Email: djacks@sfu.ca
DENNIS NOVY, University of Warwick - Department of Economics, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)
Email: d.novy@warwick.ac.uk What precisely were the causes and consequences of the trade wars in the 1930s? Were there perhaps deeper forces at work in reorienting global trade prior to the outbreak of World War II? And what lessons may this particular historical episode provide for the present day? To answer these questions, we distinguish between long-run secular trends in the period from 1920 to 1939 related to the formation of trade blocs (in particular, the British Commonwealth) and short-run disruptions associated with the trade wars of the 1930s (in particul…

Lucas Chancel on inequality and deglbalization

We already have phenomena like Donald Trump, brexit and populists gaining ground. Will "deglobalization" become more pronounced in this wave?

One of the problems is that the promises of globalization largely fail. It should raise the standard of living in low-income countries, and this happened.

But it should also improve the lives of middle class and working people in rich countries, and this has not happened.

One way to understand the rejection of multilateralism is the very failure of multilateralism.

But one way to try to make it successful is to address the critical question you posed, the flight of capital. It is necessary to organize globalization and to know with more transparency where wealth is and how it moves from one country to another.

This means, for example, that we can not continue to negotiate with tax havens that do not respect the basic rules of transparency. Because countries and governments lose in this game. This justifies the imposition of limits.

http…

Deglobalization revisited: Seven macro directions

John Butler: There will still be economic cycles, but this structural theme of deglobalisation is changing the nature of those cycles and the underlying trends they oscillate around. This is a clear frame break from the past and will be played out over multiple years. While we will likely see an ebb and flow, driven by the broader dynamics of the economic cycle, the path is clear and concerning for economic growth. more

Investing in the age of deglobalization

Rana Foroohar: The wisdom of relying on the equity of US multinationals is now suspect

more

Deglobalization 2.0 op video

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I have worked on deglobalization since I became professor at Erasmus University in 2009. Ten years of research have led to many publications. This video lecture shares what I learned and introduces my latest book Deglobalization 2.0.
We know globalization from our own experience very well. Increasing trade, foreign investment, travel and international cooperation. But that picture has spun recently as we have entered a period of deglobalization in which openness of the world economy is actually decreasing. According to recent forecasts, deglobalization is here to stay and may even deepen.
So don’t you think that we live in strange and usual times? We seem to live in the times of Trumpism, Brexitism and deglobalization. Our epoch definitely feels like something unique. But it is not. Indeed, our grandparents have been here before. Of course, the voices and characters on the world stage are different. But the stories of the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession, that we…

Is globalization 2.0 unravelling

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This blog from the New Atlanticist from 2009 is worth rereading. With today's knowledge the analysis makes sense. Underneat the veil of initial recovery Deglobalization indeed set in - well befor Brexit and Trump emerged

The bitter fruit of de-globalisation

A British exit from the European Union wouldn’t just weaken the economies of both parties, but might mark a significant step back from globalisation. Worth re-reading after some years

Disrupted production location choices

The last three decades have seen an acceleration of the interconnectedness of the global economy on a number of levels: economic, productive, financial, social, and cultural. Some referred to it as a turbocharged globalisation (Friedman, The Lexus and the olive tree: Understanding globalization. New York: Random House, 2000) since, not only had it been multi-faceted, but it had moved faster than any time before. The 2008 financial crisis has somewhat pushed to the fore the undesirable implications of such global linkages, especially in advanced economies where de-industrialisation, joblessness, and imbalances in the national and regional economies were reducing the responsiveness and resilience of economic systems to face external shocks. This led to the emergence of bottom-up resentment that has shaken political establishments in both the United States and Europe; consider the election of Trump in the United States, the emergence of populist parties in Europe and Brexit. A dislike fo…

World tourism and deglobalization

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Deglobalization 2.0 identifies tourism as the exception to deglobalization since 2009 (it is the only component that reportedly returned to above trend growth), but more recent data provided by our world in data allow for a longer time frame. The graph shows that  tourism is clearly above the peak level that was just reached before the outbreak of the Great Recession and on an upward trend. But it also ahows a clear break and a shift. Tourism is not back on trend although it is growing fast again

Roubini on cold trade war

ECRI indicator of deglobalization

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De-Globalization Diagnosis Predated Trade War"
ECRI's latest article details the trending de-globalization that has taken over the last couple of years. They describe the trend in conjunction with the global growth decline and explain that when global GDP growth outpaces global trade growth, we have de-globalization. The article details the unequal nature of deglobalization, stating that exports in the Eurozone have trended higher than their Western counterparts.

The meaning of deglobalization

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Could Deglobalisation Disrupt U.S. Supply Chains?

Lawrence Orlowski Robert E Schulz Jennelyn U Tanchua write on S&P global: "S&P Global Ratings believes that de-globalization could change the way multinational corporations manufacture and distribute goods--not just in the near term but for decades to come." and "To be sure, this wouldn't be the first time companies would need to adjust to such shifting supply-chain dynamics. By the late 19th Century, the sourcing of raw materials and trade in goods had become a global affair. By telegraph, a company in London could order a shipment of goods from Germany, India, or any number of outposts around the world. Unfortunately, this newfound interconnectedness didn't prevent international conflict, and World War I put an end to the benefits that the easier flow of goods conferred."

Topical analysis

The online learning platform iasscore is a dedicated online platform initiative by GS SCORE. It has a topical analysis of deglobalization that is quite broad (although it misses the point that the 1930s were the first wave of deglobalization)

TOPICAL ANALYSISTOPICAL ANALYSIS 6: DEGLOBALIZATION Deglobalization is the process of diminishing interdependence and integration between certain units around the world, typically nation-states.

Several prominent countries including the UK resisted globalisation by rising tariffs. Far-right parties in Europe gained popularity in this atmosphere of financial weakness.

Thus hereby analyzing the concept of Deglobalisation and recent trends of I under following heads: DEGLOBALIZATION: AN INTRODUCTIONBREXIT - PART OF THE FIRST WAVE OF DEGLOBALISATIONPROTECTION: FROM OF ECONOMIC DEGLOBALISATIONMULTILATERALISM AND THE DIVIDING WORLD ORDERDEGLOBALIZATION:EU POLICIES RELATED TO REFUGEESMULTILATERALISM AND THE DIVIDING WORLD ORDER

What if

The Economist published its new set of scenario's. "What if the US leaves Nato" fits in the "End of the Liberal Peace" in Deglobalization 2.0

Countering the globalization myth

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Globalization is the ultimate myth of the linear  thinking moral imperative that ignores periods of deglobalization and the role of non-physical “storytelling” elements. The only thing inevitable is that on the current path, predatory globalization will result in human extinction, and extinction of most other species, except of course, the cockroach.

David M. Boye Story telling in the global age

globalisolationism

What remains unclear is how deglobalization, isolationism and all the radically disruptive movements and politics in-between will shape transnational corporations’ (TNCs) ... ‘Globalisolationism’ is conceptualized as a radically non-compromising coexistence of globalization and isolationism by design, aided by new information technologies, reactivated mass consciousness and slack political resources. It is characterized by the radical pursuit of new deals within the global geopolitical and economic order; renegotiation of existing deals for resource appropriation and democratic space for the marginalized; the collapse of the old political order via auto-implosion as a beneficial constraint; and the defence of the status quo in global resource and environmental governance due to ‘translocal’ insurrection.

Frederick Aphen. "Globalisolationism and its Implications for TNCs’ Global Responsibility." Humanistic Management Journal (2019): 1-22.

The trump phenomenon

For many, the “Trump phenomenon” represents an authoritarian phase of the neoliberal project. For others, it is a manifestation of a broader populist project that is the antithesis of, and arises in part as a reaction against, neoliberalism. Across Europe, political parties hitherto identified with the Far Right and thus beyond the margins of “respectable” politics have sought to reinvent themselves as legitimate voices within this populist framework. The UK “Brexit” vote and the policies of the May administration further suggest a coalition emerging around the Far Right and those on the nationalist wing of conservatism, putting them at odds with the neoliberals and neoconservatives who have dominated the political Right for some time, and who have been the principal drivers of capitalist globalization. This begs the question—does the new populism signal the end of the globalization project?

Darren O’Byrne, . "The Rise of Populism, the Demise of the Neoliberal and Neoconservative …

Not the beginning and not the end

Rana Foroohar writes: Time to rethink investment choices and re-read history. The US also stepped up pressure on its allies to limit Huawei’s ability to do business in their markets — something that mirrors sentiment already brewing in places including Germany, which is once again pushing industrial policy and “national champions”.

This underscores the reality that the political impetus for deglobalisation does not begin and end with the Trump administration. It is no longer limited to the far-right or far-left. Most of the announced Democratic presidential hopefuls for 2020 — Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Sherrod Brown — appear to be coming around to the view that the economic relationship between the US and China will have to substantially change.

Deglobalisation is a complex, slow-burn process and not yet a done deal.

Read more

Maurice Button on the need for inclusiveness as an antidote against deglobalization

we are currently experiencing a push back against globalisation, free trade and the institutions that have supported the world economic order since 1945. Populist politicians have stoked up discontent and promised simplistic solutions to those in society that have felt left behind, marginalized, alienated or simply cheated by income inequality in their countries. However, there are valid reasons for this discontent and, if globalization, with its enormous capacity to generate However, there are valid reasons for this discontent and, if globalization, with its enormous capacity to generate wealth and be a force for good in society, is going to regain the ascendancy and win the argument against populist politicians, then it does need to change. Its proponents need to listen to their critics and to respond.

Read more

Michael A. Witt, INSEAD on the impact of a new cold war

We are clearly seeing evidence of withdrawal strategies being implemented, on both sides of the divide. Chinese foreign direct investment in the US seems to have dropped 73 percent last year alone. US and other Western firms are moving operations to other parts of Asia or to the Americas, following a new approach known as “ABC”: Anywhere But China. Such withdrawal will come at the expense of smaller reach and higher costs from foregone supply chain optimisation.
Read more

Also read: https://voxeu.org/article/return-cold-trade-war-0 (2014)

Nicholas Rilley on the cost of deglobalization

In absolute terms there are no winners from deglobalisation and from an investment perspective the risk to profit margins is very real. However, deglobalisation is probably too strong, as supply chains will ultimately adapt to the changing environment, although this will take time and cost money.

Read more

BNP Paris on risk of trade war

Trade war risks are back in focus


Investors are grappling with another wave of Sino-US trade war angstMarkets have suffered from renewed volatilityDe-globalisation is at the heart of the trade war

We have long argued that there is more than trade to Sino-US tensions and de-globalisation is a medium to long-term theme. We are not surprised to see a flare-up in tensions

Read more

Odilon Almeida on Globalisation or deglobalisation

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Shawn McBride: Deglobalization is Coming and Here’s Why

My personal bet is that we are already seeing hints of the future. Technology, and tech companies, are about to be pulled into regions and countries. Soon it will be harder and harder to be a true global player and participate in the entire world.

Read more

Financial deglobalization?

The sharp and persistent decline of international capital flows in its aftermath has been interpreted by some observers as proof of financial ’deglobalization’, reflected in particular in a generalized contraction of cross-border bank lending in response to regulatory and other policy changes (Forbes (2014), Rose and Wieladek (2014), Van Rijckeghem and Weder di Mauro (2014), Forbes et al. (2017)). However, other papers argue that such view is not supported by more appropriate measures of banking globalization, such as the interconnectedness of the banking network (Cerutti and Zhou (2017)), or nationality-based (as opposed to location-based) measures of cross-border banking activity (McCauley et al. (2017)). Our factor model framework allows us to shed light on this debate, as the aforementioned exposure of cross-border flows to common shocks provides a natural measure of the overall degree of financial globalization.

Fernandez Lafuerza, Luis Gonzalo, and Luis Servén. "Swept by the…

Trade war: Let's s(w)ing

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Zhao Liangtian is not afraid of this challenge

Pavel Rejf on Huawei and deglobalization

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Europe in Times of Deglobalization

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The very existence of the European Union is a fundamental difference to the 1930s when the European continent was fragmented, confrontational and bellicose. While Europe is missing the military might that is often seen as a necessary condition for world leadership, there could be a possible scenario in which the European Continent has to act as the hegemon of last resort.

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Erin Kelly on the costs of deglobalization

For the past several years, a backlash to globalization has dominated world politics.
The protectionism trend has seen a resurgence in recent years. The shift toward protectionism is being promoted by various policymakers across the world who claim that globalization has “failed.”
But what are the costs of reversing globalization?

Read more


desperate tweets of deglobalization

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Keiser report

Brexitannia

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and an insightful review on zeroantropology

Bilateral investment under de-globalization

As many countries are now seeking to protect their own markets rather than indulge in global trade, this paper examines whether this type of de-globalization behavior has been having any effect on international investment relationships through a systematic analysis of international investment network (IIN) in 127 economies from 2005 to 2016. Unlike previous studies that only analyzed portfolio investment data, the bilateral international investment data were estimated using a matrix-based iteration approach, and the IIN established using complex network theory. Using bilateral international investment data made the results more reliable and somewhat closer to reality. To analyze the structural properties and evolution of the IIN, complex network indicators including a new one named node similarity were developed. The node similarity is defined as the proportion of common relationships of the current economy between two successive years which is useful to reveal the dynamics of the IIN…

Revisiting and Reclaiming Deglobalization

The paradigm of deglobalization was advanced as an alternative paradigm by Focus on the Global South (Focus) in 2000, at a time that corporate-driven globalization appeared to be irresistible.
It has had an interesting history since then. Deglobalization first attracted attention and provoked discussion in progressive circles. It was only after the 2008 financial implosion that it attracted attention from the mainstream, with The Economist writing that with the “integration of the world economy in retreat on almost every front,” the economic meltdown “has popularized a new term: deglobalization.”
Nearly 20 years after “deglobalization” was first introduced  by Focus, one of its main authors, Walden Bello,  looks back at its strengths and weaknesses, and how its interaction with other alternative frameworks can be a mutually enriching exercise.
The main paper includes an annex, Deglobalization Applied: A Post Neoliberal Paradigm for Myanmar, which outlines concrete application of the p…

Borders and walls as the new manifestation of deglobalization

Ultimately, all roads lead back to the border, that ground zero of non-relation and denial of the very idea of a shared humanity, of one planet – the only one we have – that we all share and to which we are all bound by our shared itinerant condition. But perhaps, for the sake of accuracy, we should talk of ‘borderization’ rather than borders.

Achille Mbembe on Eurozine https://www.eurozine.com/deglobalization/

Is contemporary European populism a rural phenomenon?

Right-wing populism can be found right across Europe. Today, every third European government consists of or depends on a populist party. Right-wing populism has gained high levels of support among rural population in Europe. How could this happen and what are the solutions? Natalia Mamonova, of the Emancipatory Rural Politics Initiative, explains the causes of populism in the European countryside and shares some ideas on potential resistance and the building of alternatives to the regressive nationalist politics.

Right-Wing Populism and Counter-Movements in Rural Europe by Natalia Mamonova

Less trade, more conflict?

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Read about this here (The return of the cold trade war)and here (Could the US-China trade row become a global cold war? by
Nouriel Roubini 2019)

Make Internationalism Great Again: The AIB in an Age of Populist Nationalism

Most AIB members would agree that international economic, social, cultural, and political cooperation can contribute to a better world and that cross-border exchanges should be encouraged. At this point, however, that sentiment is far from universal: the very values and mission of the AIB are under attack in many of our countries from economic nationalists such as Trump in the United States, BREXIT supporters in Britain, Orban in Hungary, and most recently, Bolsonaro in Brazil.

Read more

is globalization an inevitable state or could it unravel

In the lead article, Kobrin poses a series of questions generated by recent anti- and deglobalization trends. He wonders whether globalization is an inevitable state or could unravel, and also whether a global system could be constructed that both promotes economic integration and all of the benefits it generates, while acknowledging the need for national sovereignty and independence, and preserving the rights of nation-states to oversee important aspects of their domestic economic destiny. Regarding the first question, he contends that such a system is not inevitable: a strong economy must take the lead to create a dynamic system of trade that will benefit the broadest group of nations and their stakeholders. He contends that leaders of the strongest of economies must move beyond a mercantile mindset and shorter-term, zero sum assessments of economic gain by recognizing longer-term benefits of trade on economic stability and peace. Following Rodrik, Stiglitz, and others, Kobrin obser…

Psychology of (de) globalization

"This pervasive economic and political deglobalization is unprecedented (...) It seems as if globalization may have reached its peak, a peak that not long ago seemed in the far distance by the wealth gains of trading goods around the world and the ease of travels for many"
Gerard Reese, , Amir Rosenmann, and James E. Cameron. The Psychology of Globalization: Identity, Ideology, and Action. Academic Press, 2019., pp. 210-211

Data convincingly show that globalisation and deglobalisation are recurring phases of our economic system

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We are in the midst of a deglobalisation wave of which Trumpism and Brexit are mere symptoms. Deglobalisation can be recognised in almost all countries and at the global level. How has deglobalisation occurred in the past and in this day and age? Professor of International Economic Relations and Macroeconomics Peter van Bergeijk analyses the concept of deglobalisation in this pre-publication of his book 'Deglobalization 2.0: trade and openness during the Great Depression and the Great Recession' on internationale spectator (clingendael institute)

The spectre of deglobalization and the European elections

A decade after the first crisis of 21st century capitalism, Europe has passed the nadir of the aftershocks unleashed by the 2008 global downturn. It is time to count blessings: a rerun of the Great Depression has been avoided and growth returned to the besieged continent. Whether the upswing will continue in 2019 is doubtful as dark clouds hover on the horizon. The spectre of deglobalization looming over trade tensions between the United States (US) and China, the uncertain fallout from Brexit, Hungarian, Polish and Romanian backsliding on the rule of law, and the rise of populism across the continent confront the European Union (EU) with an existential crisis.

Anton Hemeryck Making Social Investment Happen in the Eurozone Eurpean University Institute Special Issue for European Elections

Mercantilism and deglobalization

Thus, we can conclude that the gravediggers of globalization, raging world. Enemies of a project that, for its low acceptance in society, we could consider a failure. In the coming years, could be predicted a weakening of the supranational structures-UN , NATO, etc-, which will lead to an increase in political tensions and a greater tension in the international board.

Read more

Print version arrives

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The e-book was already available, and now the printed version has also arrived

The beginning of deglobalization or just a blip?

Bloomberg economist Carl J. Riccadonna said the current “trade war” was more a “trade skirmish” and that globalization was just slowing. Michael Pettis, professor of finance at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, in contrast, believes that we have entered a phase of deglobalization. Read more

While I am quite persuaded by the data that deglobalization currently is a real world phenomenon with which we have to deal, others are clearly not. Lund and Tyson (2018) use a provocative title ‘Globalization Is Not in Retreat’ to point out that the slow-down of world trade in physical goods may be due to increasing e-commerce and digitalized services. By implication the traditional metrics of globalization show a decrease due to this substitution effect. Constantinescu et al. (2016) ask the question, ‘Does the global trade slowdown matter?’ Yet another disbeliever Bordo (2017) adds: ‘The Second Era of Globalization is Not Yet Over’ arguing that we are witnessing a slowdown of gl…

Deglobalization and the pharmaceutical industry

Deglobalization, Industry 4.0, and biosimilars may change the trade routes
Several changes in the market are affecting current pharma trade routes, but the combined effect is difficult to predict. For many years, pharmaceutical companies have located manufacturing to developing countries to reduce labor costs and other production costs. There is still lot of collaboration in the industry, where for example raw material may be manufactured in China, shipped to India for further development, and the finished products will then be shipped to for example the US. However, there is also the opposite trend of deglobalization, where companies are relocating manufacturing back to the home market.

There are several drivers behind the deglobalization trend. Next generation manufacturing, or Industry 4.0, are terms that describe the new developments in manufacturing with a high degree of automation and process control. This radically reduces manpower requirements, which means that labor costs are…

Trump and the Weaponization of International Trade

Jack Thompson, Center for Security Studies (CSS) on ocus.net: There is a degree of truth in Trump’s critique of globalization. Economists debate the scale of the problem, but major trade deals such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and the impact on the US manufacturing sector of China’s integration into the international economic system – the so-called China Shock – have had a significant impact on key sections of the economy. The United States probably experienced overall net growth because of trade liberalization – millions benefited from these changes, and a majority of voters view globalization in mostly positive terms – but many Americans saw their lives change for the worse. The consequences for these people have been stark: they have endured falling income levels or long-term unemployment, decreased life expectancies, and hometowns that have, in some cases literally, crumbled around them.

China, Energy and the Era of deglobalization

In the era of deglobalization, a much more security conscious China is likely to adjust its attitude towards foreign supply of strategically important commodities, with profound implications for its energy and environmental policy making in the years to come. (Columbia Global Centers | Beijing for a public lecture on China's energy transformation in the era of deglobalization, featuring CGEP Fellow Jianjun Kevin Tu.)

Deglobalization and remittances

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In a world roiled by populist sentiments and anti-immigrant tendencies, the world’s well-trodden migration corridors, which follow remittance corridors one to one, are under strain. It would seem fitting (if tragic), that a world hellbent on retrenchment and deglobalization, is not only raising barriers to entry to the more than 260 million economic migrants around the world, it is also squeezing remittance flows with costly transfer fees. Read more on risk cooperative
Remittances are interesting because these flows are based on decisions by individuals and households, rather than firms or governments. It is a good additional indicator since it is motivated by considerations other than FDI or official flows including development aid. Remittances did not suffer a major collapse but clearly a slow down since the start of the Great Depression is also visible here. So also for this component of economic globalization we see a structural break. Read more in chapter 2

should we be afraid of deglobalization

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Les populistes n’ont pas inventé la démondialisation

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L’Europe à l’ère de la démondialisation

Les histoires de la Grande Dépression des années 1930 et de la Grande Récession post 2008 racontent fondamentalement un transfert d'hégémonie. Elles sont dans une large mesure similaires. Ce qui fait la différence? L'Europe. see blog on Telos

Modelling disruptive trade policies: what does it cost?

"Quantifying Disruptive Trade Policies"CESifo Working Paper No. 7382 EDWARD J. BALISTRERI, CHRISTOPH BOEHRINGER,THOMAS RUTHERFORD,  Mainstream economic wisdom favoring cooperative free trade is challenged by a wave of disruptive trade policies. In this paper, we provide quantitative evidence concerning the economic impacts of tariffs implemented by the United States in 2018 and the subsequent retaliations by partner countries. Our analysis builds on a multi-region multi-sector general-equilibrium simulation model of the global economy that includes an innovative monopolistic-competition structure of bilateral representative firms.

Brexit delay will not postpone deglobalisation

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In my recent VOX column I argue that deglobalisation is here and enforces a structural transformation of the world economy. Political turbulence can perhaps hasten this process. To some observers, delays to the big topical trade shocks may therefore seem to help to turn the tide. Brexit and ‘Make America Great Again’ are, however, symptoms of underlying processes that have already generated significant trade and investment uncertainty and this is already exercising a concrete impact on trade and investment flows as firms and consumers are adjusting behaviour in anticipation of further trade shocks. The delay of the deadlines provides a pause at best. It is therefore pertinent to rethink global economic governance and make it resistant to deglobalisation. Read more

Bank Of International Settlements on Deglobalization and Globalization

Globalisation has had a profound effect on economic outcomes, especially in emerging market economies (EMEs). In particular, it is widely acknowledged to have been a major driver of the strong income growth and reduction in poverty witnessed in EMEs in the past few decades. Despite these benefits, there has recently been a backlash against globalisation and growing support for inward looking policies in many parts of the world. Against this backdrop, this volume takes stock of the EME experience with two facets of globalisation-trade and migration. It summarises different country experiences with regard to the aggregate as well as distributional consequences. In doing so, it highlights several examples and avenues for policy action to continue to harness the benefits of globalisation while limiting the costs.

Is terrorism, poverty, and refugees the dark side of globalization?

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada, Donghyun Park, Alam Khan and Muhammad Tahir present a new model on the impact of terrorism on the Deglobalization process. The channels are faster poverty expansion, largest flows of refugees, expansion of trade protectionism, and last but not least, the dramatic expansion of economic desgrowth. They apply their DGE-Model to three Muslim countries, namely Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan in the period  1999–2018, a period which witnessed acceleration of Deglobalization and expansion of terrorism in those three countries.

Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz, Donghyun Park, Alam Khan, and Muhammad Tahir. "Is terrorism, poverty, and refugees the dark side of globalization?." Quality & Quantity (2019): 1-13.

Laos in 2018: Deglobalization?

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As usual, there is mostly continuity in Laos: solid economic growth, a strong ruling communist party, increasing dependence on China, growing inequality, and tight control of civil society. A new trend, apart from the return of a socialist rhetoric, is an official appraisal of self-sufficiency and anti-globalization.

Boike Rehbein. "Laos in 2018: Deglobalization?." Asian Survey 59.1 (2019): 193-197.

Paul Scheffer on the risks of deglobalization

According to economist Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, there are three risks attributed to
deglobalization. These attributes are a reduction of the level of international integration of
economies into long-run growth, a loss of interaction/co-movement of economies and a
reduction of trade policies which would legitimize protectionism and ultimately lead to a risk of
international conflict

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The new world "order": Trump, Brexit and the developing countries

Deglobalisation is not the mirror image of globalisation. The losers of globalisation will thus not be the winners of deglobalisation. Indeed, the vulnerable and poor will be the big losers of deglobalisation both in the Global North and Global South.

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