Tuesday, 23 January 2018

On the Brink of Deglobalization Again (contribution to special issue on deglobalization CJRES)

This article provides an empirical analysis of the disruption of (neo)classical/liberal globalisation
during the Great Depression and the Great Recession, identifying challenges to
existing knowledges and approaches, in particular the mainstream analysis that studied the
Great Recession in isolation, treating it as a special case and ignoring political covariates of
deglobalisation processes. The econometric analysis (an unbalanced panel of 31 countries
in the 1928–1932 and 128 countries in 2008–2012) does not find an impact from the level of
development on deglobalisation. The manufacturing import share is significantly associated
with stronger deglobalisation (this effect is stronger in the 1930s than in the 2000s). The
political system is highly significant in both 1930s and 2000s, but the sign of its impact is
opposite. In the 1930s, autocratic rule and dictatorship are associated with stronger deglobalisation;
in the 2000s, democracy is associated with stronger deglobalisation.

link to article

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