The current phase of deglobalization has started in 2008/9 well before Brexit and Trump were on the horizon. A decade later openness (world trade in percent of global production) is still below previous peak level with no apparent recovery
Deglobalization 2.0 identifies tourism as the exception to deglobalization since 2009 (it is the only component that reportedly returned to above trend growth), but more recent data provided by our world in data allow for a longer time frame. The graph shows that tourism is clearly above the peak level that was just reached before the outbreak of the Great Recession and on an upward trend. But it also ahows a clear break and a shift. Tourism is not back on trend although it is growing fast again
A decade after the first crisis of 21st century capitalism, Europe has passed the nadir of the aftershocks unleashed by the 2008 global downturn. It is time to count blessings: a rerun of the Great Depression has been avoided and growth returned to the besieged continent. Whether the upswing will continue in 2019 is doubtful as dark clouds hover on the horizon. The spectre of deglobalization looming over trade tensions between the United States (US) and China, the uncertain fallout from Brexit, Hungarian, Polish and Romanian backsliding on the rule of law, and the rise of populism across the continent confront the European Union (EU) with an existential crisis.
The last three decades have seen an acceleration of the interconnectedness of the global economy on a number of levels: economic, productive, financial, social, and cultural. Some referred to it as a turbocharged globalisation (Friedman, The Lexus and the olive tree: Understanding globalization. New York: Random House, 2000) since, not only had it been multi-faceted, but it had moved faster than any time before. The 2008 financial crisis has somewhat pushed to the fore the undesirable implications of such global linkages, especially in advanced economies where de-industrialisation, joblessness, and imbalances in the national and regional economies were reducing the responsiveness and resilience of economic systems to face external shocks. This led to the emergence of bottom-up resentment that has shaken political establishments in both the United States and Europe; consider the election of Trump in the United States, the emergence of populist parties in Europe and Brexit. A dislike fo…
De-Globalization Diagnosis Predated Trade War"
ECRI's latest article details the trending de-globalization that has taken over the last couple of years. They describe the trend in conjunction with the global growth decline and explain that when global GDP growth outpaces global trade growth, we have de-globalization. The article details the unequal nature of deglobalization, stating that exports in the Eurozone have trended higher than their Western counterparts.