Showing posts from July, 2019

Lucas Chancel on inequality and deglbalization

We already have phenomena like Donald Trump, brexit and populists gaining ground. Will "deglobalization" become more pronounced in this wave? One of the problems is that the promises of globalization largely fail. It should raise the standard of living in low-income countries, and this happened. But it should also improve the lives of middle class and working people in rich countries, and this has not happened. One way to understand the rejection of multilateralism is the very failure of multilateralism. But one way to try to make it successful is to address the critical question you posed, the flight of capital. It is necessary to organize globalization and to know with more transparency where wealth is and how it moves from one country to another. This means, for example, that we can not continue to negotiate with tax havens that do not respect the basic rules of transparency. Because countries and governments lose in this game. This justifies the imposition of li

Deglobalization revisited: Seven macro directions

John Butler: There will still be economic cycles, but this structural theme of deglobalisation is changing the nature of those cycles and the underlying trends they oscillate around. This is a clear frame break from the past and will be played out over multiple years. While we will likely see an ebb and flow, driven by the broader dynamics of the economic cycle, the path is clear and concerning for economic growth. more

Investing in the age of deglobalization

Rana Foroohar:  The wisdom of relying on the equity of US multinationals is now suspect more

Deglobalization 2.0 op video

I have worked on deglobalization since I became professor at Erasmus University in 2009. Ten years of research have led to many publications. This video lecture shares what I learned and introduces my latest book Deglobalization 2.0. We know globalization from our own experience very well. Increasing trade, foreign investment, travel and international cooperation. But that picture has spun recently as we have entered a period of deglobalization in which openness of the world economy is actually decreasing. According to recent forecasts, deglobalization is here to stay and may even deepen. So don’t you think that we live in strange and usual times? We seem to live in the times of Trumpism, Brexitism and deglobalization. Our epoch definitely feels like something unique. But it is not. Indeed, our grandparents have been here before. Of course, the voices and characters on the world stage are different. But the stories of the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession, that

Is globalization 2.0 unravelling

This blog from the New Atlanticist from 2009 is worth rereading. With today's knowledge the analysis makes sense. Underneat the veil of initial recovery Deglobalization indeed set in - well befor Brexit and Trump emerged

The bitter fruit of de-globalisation

A British exit from the European Union wouldn’t just weaken the economies of both parties, but might mark a significant step back from globalisation. Worth re-reading after some years

Disrupted production location choices

The last three decades have seen an acceleration of the interconnectedness of the global economy on a number of levels: economic, productive, financial, social, and cultural. Some referred to it as a turbocharged globalisation (Friedman, The Lexus and the olive tree: Understanding globalization. New York: Random House, 2000) since, not only had it been multi-faceted, but it had moved faster than any time before. The 2008 financial crisis has somewhat pushed to the fore the undesirable implications of such global linkages, especially in advanced economies where de-industrialisation, joblessness, and imbalances in the national and regional economies were reducing the responsiveness and resilience of economic systems to face external shocks. This led to the emergence of bottom-up resentment that has shaken political establishments in both the United States and Europe; consider the election of Trump in the United States, the emergence of populist parties in Europe and Brexit. A dislike for

World tourism and deglobalization

Data according Our world in data Deglobalization 2.0 identifies tourism as the exception to deglobalization since 2009 (it is the only component that reportedly returned to above trend growth), but more recent data provided by our world in data allow for a longer time frame. The graph shows that  tourism is clearly above the peak level that was just reached before the outbreak of the Great Recession and on an upward trend. But it also ahows a clear break and a shift. Tourism is not back on trend although it is growing fast again

Roubini on cold trade war

ECRI indicator of deglobalization

De-Globalization Diagnosis Predated Trade War" ECRI's latest article details the trending de-globalization that has taken over the last couple of years. They describe the trend in conjunction with the global growth decline and explain that when global GDP growth outpaces global trade growth, we have de-globalization. The article details the unequal nature of deglobalization, stating that exports in the Eurozone have trended higher than their Western counterparts.

The meaning of deglobalization


Could Deglobalisation Disrupt U.S. Supply Chains?

Lawrence Orlowski Robert E Schulz Jennelyn U Tanchua write on S&P global : "S&P Global Ratings believes that de-globalization could change the way multinational corporations manufacture and distribute goods--not just in the near term but for decades to come." and "To be sure, this wouldn't be the first time companies would need to adjust to such shifting supply-chain dynamics. By the late 19th Century, the sourcing of raw materials and trade in goods had become a global affair. By telegraph, a company in London could order a shipment of goods from Germany, India, or any number of outposts around the world. Unfortunately, this newfound interconnectedness didn't prevent international conflict, and World War I put an end to the benefits that the easier flow of goods conferred."

Topical analysis

The online learning platform iasscore is a dedicated online platform initiative by GS SCORE. It has a topical analysis of deglobalization that is quite broad (although it misses the point that the 1930s were the first wave of deglobalization) TOPICAL ANALYSIS TOPICAL ANALYSIS 6: DEGLOBALIZATION Deglobalization is the process of diminishing interdependence and integration between certain units around the world, typically nation-states. Several prominent countries including the UK resisted globalisation by rising tariffs. Far-right parties in Europe gained popularity in this atmosphere of financial weakness. Thus hereby analyzing the concept of Deglobalisation and recent trends of I under following heads: DEGLOBALIZATION: AN INTRODUCTION BREXIT - PART OF THE FIRST WAVE OF DEGLOBALISATION PROTECTION: FROM OF ECONOMIC DEGLOBALISATION MULTILATERALISM AND THE DIVIDING WORLD ORDER DEGLOBALIZATION:EU POLICIES RELATED TO REFUGEES MULTILATERALISM AND THE DIVIDING WORLD ORDER

What if

The Economist published its new set of scenario's . "What if the US leaves Nato" fits in the "End of the Liberal Peace" in Deglobalization 2.0

Countering the globalization myth

Globalization is the ultimate myth of the linear  thinking moral imperative that ignores periods of deglobalization and the role of non-physical “storytelling” elements. The only thing inevitable is that on the current path, predatory globalization will result in human extinction, and extinction of most other species, except of course, the cockroach. David M. Boye Story telling in the global age