Showing posts from December, 2019

A Big History

This book proposes that there have been waves of globalization and deglobalization in human history that are similar in some respects with cycles of integration and disintegration that have occurred in physical and biological evolution.


After decades of increasing globalization both in trade, capital flows but even people to people movements, it seems the trend has turned towards deglobalization. This article shows some evidence of the decrease in merchandise, capital and, to a lesser extent people to people flows. In addition, zooming into trade, the article offers an account of the importance of the strategic competition between the US and China to foster the deglobalization trend further. This is true for trade but even beyond in the tech and finance space. Finally, the demise of the WTO could be one of the most relevant turning points towards deglobalization, especially as far as trade is concerned. This should bring downward pressure to growth globally - Alicia GarcĂ­a HerreroSenior researcher of the European think tank BRUEGEL

Global instability and social disillusion

"We are arguably entering an age of increasing global instability and social disillusion, both of which may be seen as prominent hallmarks of the end of the globalization thrust and the beginning of an opposite ‘deglobalization’ era (see, especially, van Bergeijk 2019; James 2017). The symptoms of a growing instability and disillusion are variably expressed in politics, society and the economy, in so far as all these areas are experiencing a surge of nationalist and protectionist movements, fuelled by popular grievance and general distrust of elites (see, in this regard, Lagarde 2019). In the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008, it has in fact become common for people, especially the middle-class in developed countries, to have declining perceptions of well-being and trust in the future. - Giorgio Beretta, ‘FIXING’ THE SOCIAL CONTRACT: A BLUEPRINT FOR INDIVIDUAL TAX REFORM"

Sanctions and deglobalization

One of the issues that was discussed during the  Symposium on the Political Economy of Sanctions (Marburg University, Germany, organized by Mohammad Farzanegan and Sajjad Dizaji) was whether sanctions were a symptom or a cause of deglobalization, also in view of the increased use of sanctions by the US. The increase in the frequency of sanction threats and sanction implementations is associated with the speeding up of globalization after 1990 but this is mainly a reflection of the end to the superpower conflict that enabled a greater efficcy of UN sanctions. Sanctions agains Iran and North Korea are especially linked to one of the sympthoms of deglobalization 2.0, namely the presidency of Mr Trump.

Mansoob Murshed on re-emerging interstate hostilities and deglobalization

Most wars nowadays are internal wars, which are also described as intra-state or civil wars. Yet inter-state tensions, short of militarised conflict, still persist. Many cold war rivalries have reemerged, examples include the Syrian civil war, the recent escalation of hostilities between the USA and Iran, as well as trade related hostility between the USA and China (see, van Bergeijk 2019). Reformulating Jan Tinbergen’s Normative Vision on Welfare and Security

Discussion of deglobalization at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow)

Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs School of World Economy  VII Annual Conference on the Global Economy  Ten years have passed after the Great Recession of 2008-2009, and a growing number of economists suggest that the new financial crisis may start next year. For the last years, most of the crisis predictors expected that it would start in Asia where a critical volume of bad debts had been accumulated. Then the focus of concerns shifted to US where the financial markets show some signs of overheating. US-China trade war and uncertainty around Brexit make the new global crisis even more possible. On the other hand, as Paul Samuelson noticed decades ago, markets had predicted “nine of the last five recessions”, and economists often see threats that fail to materialize. At the section, the following issues will be discussed: - Is it possible to predict financial crises and what indicators are the best to do it? - Does the global economy demonstrate any signs of the