you've got that wrong

Message do 2 sep 2010 8:48

From: "Richard Baldwin"

To: Peter van Bergeijk

Subject: Your paper on trade collapse.

Attachments: Attach0.html 8K
Hi,
Your paper asserts: "the main stream narrative that links the strength and speed of the world trade collapse in 2008-9 to (i) lacking trade finance, (ii) international value chains and (iii) ‘murky’ protectionism."
I think you’ve got that wrong. See http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/4297 for what is the mainstream explanation. It was a demand shock multiplied by a composition effect.


Richard Baldwin

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

unpacking the possibility of deglobalisation

Finbarr Livesey argues that  he interpretation of the global economy has been framed as an inevitable journey towards ever greater integration—a story of hyper-globalisation. This article discusses the nature of manufacturing to understand whether this interpretation holds and to investigate the possibility of deglobalisation at the level of physical goods trade in the coming decades, and what that may imply for other non-physical elements of globalisation.
Read more

World tourism and deglobalization

Image
Data according Our world in data Deglobalization 2.0 identifies tourism as the exception to deglobalization since 2009 (it is the only component that reportedly returned to above trend growth), but more recent data provided by our world in data allow for a longer time frame. The graph shows that  tourism is clearly above the peak level that was just reached before the outbreak of the Great Recession and on an upward trend. But it also ahows a clear break and a shift. Tourism is not back on trend although it is growing fast again
Read more